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Aghamohamadi S, Jahangiri K, Hajinabi K, Masoudi Asl I, Dehnavieh R. Trend Forecasting Death of Endocrine, Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases in the Islamic Republic of Iran During the Years 2006 to 2035. irje. 2018; 1111
URL: http://irje.tums.ac.ir/article-1-5812-en.html
1- Department of Health Service Management. Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Health in disasters and emergency. School of Health, Safety, Environment (HSE), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. , dr.katayon.jahangiri@gmail.com
3- Islamic Parliament Research Center, Tehran, Iran
4- Department of Health Service Management. Institute for Future Studies in Health, Kerman, Iran
Abstract:   (1012 Views)
Background & Objectives: Among non-communicable diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic especially in developing countries have increasingly grown in recent decades. So this study to evaluate and predict deaths from this group of diseases has been carried out in Iran
Methods: The type of this study was analytic cross-sectional study. The study population comprised all deaths of endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases recorded in Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the years 2006 to 2016. In order to forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1.
Results: The death rate from diseases of the endocrine, nutritional and metabolic all age groups and sex have increased during the years 2006 to 2015. Anticipated that death rate of this group of diseases will reach 197.71 in total population, 202.97 in women, 188.99 in men(per 100 thousand populations) in 2035.
Conclusion: Several factors play a role in endocrine and metabolic diseases, one of which is the aging and aging population. Considering the change in the age structure of the population of Iran by 2035 and the increase in population aging, an increasing trend is expected in the mortality rate due to these diseases. Due to its rapid growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran, policymakers need to adopt policies and intergovernmental plans based on population.
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2017/11/28 | Accepted: 2017/11/28 | Published: 2017/11/28

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