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Bagheri A, Hajieh bibi Razeghi Nasrabad H, Saadati M. Identification of Fertility Preference Determinants Applying Poisson Regression. irje. 2014; 1111
URL: http://irje.tums.ac.ir/article-1-5610-en.html

1- Assistant Professor,National Population Studies & Comprehensive Management Institute, Iran , bagheri@psri.ac.ir
2- Assistant Professor,National Population Studies & Comprehensive Management Institute, Iran
Abstract:   (3669 Views)

Background and Objective: Changes in ideals, values and aspirations of childbearing are the important factors in decision making process and fertility behavior. Nowadays, fertility rate reduction below the replacement level and decreasing childbearing ideals are the most common fertility challenges in Iran. So by decreasing fertility rate, awareness of the ideal number of children and its determinants, to adopt population policies consistent with the economic, social and cultural contexts of Iranian society is necessary. The main aim of this study is to investigate influential factors on the ideal number of children as one of the factors influencing fertility preferences using Poisson regression model.

Methods: In 2012, 389 ever married women aged 15-49 in Semnan province by two-phase stratified random sampling method were selected and by applying a structured questionnaire were studied. In order to model the ideal number of children by Poisson regression model where marriage duration has taken as offset, the number of children ever born, job status, education level, type of marriage and resident place were considered as predictors and the model fitted by SPSS software version 22.

Results:: All predictors in this study had significant effects on women’s ideal number of children in Semnan (p-value <0.05). Women’s ideal number of children who had 2 or less ever born children, employed, in university education level, with non-familial marriage, and rural was bigger than those with 3 and more ever born children, unemployed, in elementary and secondary educational levels, with familial marriage, and urban.

Conclusion:: To model the ideal number of children, due to its nature that is discrete and count variable, a Poisson regression model compared to the linear regression models is more efficient.

Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2017/01/18 | Accepted: 2017/01/18 | Published: 2017/01/18

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