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Mohammadsalehi N, Holakouie Naieni K, Eshrati B, Arsangjang S, Ahmadnezhad E, Mohammadbeigi A. The trend of cholera in the last 50 years and modeling the effect of annual temperature and rainfall on incidence of new outbreaks in Iran (2005-2014). irje. 2014; 1111
URL: http://irje.tums.ac.ir/article-1-5832-en.html

Abstract:   (213 Views)
Background & Objectives: Cholera is considered as one of the public health threats in developing countries and its occurrence importance  has been considered regarding to climate change and weather variables. In the current study, the trend of cholera and occurred epidemics assessed in the last 50 years of Iran and the ten-year period in different provinces the effect of climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature were studied.
Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, all cholera cases and epidemics of the disease in the country (Iran) was assessed using registration system at the Center for Communicable Disease Control in Ministry of Health and Medical education (MOH&ME) from 1964 to 2014 as well as the incidence rate of cholera was evaluated in 2005-2014 by province. Temperature and rainfall data  were obtained from the provincial Meteorological Organization. The correlation coefficient test and mixed-effects binomial regression model were used for data analysis. Since the cholera number was counts and considered as dependent variable while, temperature, rainfall and year variables were covariates. Data analysis was done in SPSS and STATA software.
Results: During the the past 10 years, two outbreaks have occurred in 2005 and, 2011. A significant positive correlation was found between cholera and rainfall (r = 0.168, p = 0.008) while was not observed by air temperature (r = 0.018, p = 0.772). Based on the final model results, with an increase of one millimeter of rainfall, the incidence rate of cholera would increase by 10.9% but temperature changes have not had an effect on cholera outbreaks. The incidence rate of cholera declined significantly 14.7% each year from 2005 to 2014. The highest incidence rate of cholera was in Sistan-Baluchestan, Qom, Tehran, Kerman and Hormozgan provinces, respectively.
Conclusion: In recent years, the number of annual cholera cases has been very limited and the overall incidence of cholera has been decreasing.  Occurrence of cholera has been because of increased rainfall in last year. Therefore, by increases of rainfall, the number of cholera cases would increase. However, temperature changes were not related factors in cholera outbreak occurrence.
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2017/12/13 | Accepted: 2017/12/13 | Published: 2017/12/13

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